A major research project called the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project found that in the next 25 years, illnesses that are not easily treated with antibiotics could kill more than 39 million people.
This detailed study, which was released in The Lancet, shows how antibiotic resistance (AMR) is rising in a very worrying way and how the whole world needs to act right away to stop it.
The danger of AMR to world health is growing.
Antimicrobial resistance happens when bacteria and other pathogens change over time to become resistant to medicines. This means that standard treatments no longer work.
The new GRAM study shows that AMR is becoming more dangerous; it shows that over a million people die every year from illnesses caused by AMR.
This number is expected to hit 1.91 million by 2050, up 67.5% from 2022 if things keep going the way they are.
AMR is projected to be a factor in 8.22 million deaths a year by the middle of the century, which is almost 75% more than in 2021.
These numbers show that this health disaster affects people all over the world, and the number of diseases that are resistant to antibiotics is growing at a very worrying rate.
Changes in AMR deaths based on age
The big change in AMR-related deaths between age groups is one of the most important things that the GRAM study found.
Between 1990 and 2021, more than half fewer children under five years old died from illnesses that were not easily treated with antibiotics. This was made possible by better vaccinations and other ways to avoid getting infections.
However, the death rate among people aged 70 and older more than doubled. This was due to the fact that the world’s population is getting older and older people are more likely to get illnesses.
The study says that deaths from AMR will more than double in people aged 70 and up by 2050, but deaths in children under five will continue to go down.
This big difference makes it clear that different steps need to be taken to protect both age groups that are more likely to be hurt.
What pathogens do
Antimicrobial resistance is on the rise, and the GRAM study looks into which bacteria are to blame. One major reason is Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). From 1990 to 2021, the number of deaths caused by MRSA more than doubled, rising from 57,200 to 130,000.
Also, it’s getting harder and harder to treat Gram-negative bacteria, which are some of the most immune to medicines. The number of deaths from infections caused by bacteria that are not sensitive to carbapenem rose from 127,000 in 1990 to 216,000 in 2021.
This rise in viruses that are immune to antibiotics shows how important it is to find new medicines and treatments, especially for Gram-negative bacteria, which are extremely hard to kill with current drugs.
What AMR means for the world
Antibiotic-resistant diseases are a threat all over the world, but some places are more likely to get them than others. Five places where AMR-related deaths went up a lot from 1990 to 2021 were found by the GRAM study: western sub-Saharan Africa, tropical Latin America, high-income North America, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.
South Asia is likely to have the most deaths from AMR by 2050. Between 2025 and 2050, over 11.8 million deaths will be directly linked to AMR.
The fact that AMR deaths vary by area shows how important it is for the whole world to work together to fight this disease, paying extra attention to places that don’t have good healthcare or easy access to medicines that work.
Stopping the crisis
The GRAM study not only gives a bad outlook, but it also gives us hope by showing how to stop the spread of antibiotic resistance.
The study’s authors say that if we want to stop the expected rise in AMR deaths, we need to improve healthcare services, make it easier for people to get antibiotics, and stop people from using medicines in ways that aren’t necessary.
Improving methods to stop and control infections, like vaccine programs, can also help stop the spread of diseases that are immune.
Another important approach is to put money into study to find new medicines. The study emphasizes how important it is to quickly develop drugs that target Gram-negative bacteria. These drugs could avoid up to 11 million deaths by 2050 that are caused by AMR.
Without new medicines, people might not be able to treat even common diseases as well, which would undo decades of progress in medicine.
The costs to society and the economy
Resistance to antibiotics isn’t just a public health problem; it also causes big problems in the economy and society.
As infections that are resistant get harder to treat, healthcare costs are likely to go through the roof, putting even more stress on systems that are already very busy.
Losing medicines that work could also cause people to stay in the hospital longer, pay more for medical care, and put more financial stress on families and communities.
In addition, AMR has a huge effect on society. People who are already struggling will probably be hit the hardest by the crisis. This is especially true in low- and middle-income countries where healthcare is hard to get to.
The rising number of deaths linked to AMR could make current problems worse and bring new problems to world health.
The way forward
Even though things look bad, experts say that it’s still not too late to stop the worst effects of the AMR problem. Millions of deaths can be avoided if everyone works together right away.
The GRAM study says that between 2025 and 2050, better care for infections and easier access to medicines could save 92 million lives.
We can stop AMR from becoming an even deadlier global health disaster by putting money into study, making it easier for people to get medicines, and putting in place steps to stop infections. Now is the time to act.
